While college football has already kicked off for the 2025 season, the first marquee matchup that could fundamentally change the landscape of college football playoffs takes place in Columbus, Ohio between the Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes. A rematch of last year’s semifinal, where Ohio State edged Texas with some late game heroics by Jack Sawyer and the talented Buckeye defense. Texas will look to get some revenge on the road in Big Ten country.
The major predictor models have mixed feelings about the outcome. ESPN’s model gives the edge to Texas with a 53.5% win probability and their SEC homer mouthpiece Paul Finebaum has even predicted a blowout for Texas [1]. However, Dimers.com predicts a Texas win with a 52% victory and a score of 25-24. The Sports Illustrated latest model projects Texas to win with a score of 31-23 [2].
One key factor will be returning talent at starting positions for each team. Ohio State will return 6 for offense and 3 on defense. The defense adjustment may be critical. Texas is returning more starters on defense than Ohio State but less on offense. Both teams will be replacing their starting quarterbacks from last year’s playoff semifinal. Arch Manning will succeed Quinn Ewers while Julian Sayin will take Will Howard’s place. Arch Manning has more game experience but Julian Sayin has arguably the best receiver in the country to pair with Jeremiah Smith.
Both coaches have great histories with Steve Sarkisian compiling a 84-52 record in 11 seasons, 38-17 at Texas where he has a Big 12 championship. Ryan Day is 70-10 overall, all at Ohio State with 2 Big Ten titles and a national championship last season. These coaches know how to win. The Longhorns will not be afraid of a road battle as they went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan last season. It would be quite the accomplishment to beat the defending national champion on the road in consecutive years, a feat that may not yet have been achieved.
Arch Manning is a redshirt sophomore who served as a backup to Quinn Ewers last season. He is the son of Cooper Manning, grandson of Archie Manning, and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. His pedigree is strong but he has not yet performed a full season of college football, least of all not against top tier opponents. He is regarded as one of the greatest quarterbacks this season and a favorite for the Heisman. Opposite him, the Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin initially committed to Alabama but transferred to Ohio State upon the retirement of Nick Saban. He was a highly rated recruit out of high school. He has not seen significant playing time but won the starting position against Lincoln Kienholz.
Ohio State and Texas split the previous four matchups. Ohio State lost the last matchup in 2005 by a score of 25-22. They would return the favor and beat Texas on the road in 2006. In January 2009, the teams met in Glendale, AZ where Texas won 24-21. Earlier in this year on January 10th, Ohio State won 28-14. If the pattern holds, Texas wins this weekend and then OSU probably wins next year.
The outcome of this game could affect the playoffs though it is unlikely to knock either team out of playoff contention as they are not conference opponents and there is so much season left (literally all of it minus this game). If both these teams continue to have great success the rest of the year, the loser of this game would have a “quality loss” that is more forgivable than losing to an unranked conference foe. However, the outcome could affect the seeding by giving the winner the edge when it comes to bracket filling.
As this is yet another SEC vs Big Ten matchup, the conference comparisons will accompany the buildup to the game all the way to the post-game analysis. It will be used in countless arguments for the superiority of one of these conferences based on who wins and by what margin. These teams will likely be among the top of their respective conferences and will still warrant respect even if they lose, as long as it is not by several touchdowns.
I am no expert in college football but I think Ohio State may still win this game. I think home field advantage will come into play. The 2005 team did not have the expectations and were not coming off a title winning season. The fans will show up and will be loud. I do not think either QB will truly be the difference maker unless they do so by making horrible mistakes. I think Ryan Day’s more impressive coaching and planning will do well to prep the team and fire up the crowd. I believe the game will be close and likely decided in the 4th quarter in a one possession game, 28-24 Buckeyes.
References:
[1] https://sports.yahoo.com/article/paul-finebaum-predicts-ohio-state-172925619.html
[2] https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/ohio-state-buckeyes-vs-texas-longhorns-prediction
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